News - May 8th, 2012

Asia Economy Note

Indonesia
GDP expanded a strong +6.3% yoy in Q1 2012. On a qoq non-seasonally adjusted basis, GDP rose +1.4% from the previous quarter. Growth is likely to slow this year, to about 6% from 6.5% in 2011.

Taiwan
Exports fell 6.4% yoy in April after declining 3.2% yoy in March, coming in below expectations. In seasonally adjusted terms, April exports fell 2.8% mom after two consecutive months of increases, suggesting that external demand remains weak. A reacceleration in China may boost Taiwan’s exports going forward, but growth in the US and the Eurozone will be key to a sustainable recovery.
 
Headline inflation rose to 1.44% yoy in April, compared with a revised 1.25% increase in March. This was in line with market expectation for a 1.41% gain. Core inflation rose 0.92% in April, higher than 0.75% in March.
 
Other EM
In Brazil, the BCB's weekly survey put the consensus view for end-2012 rates at 8.5%. The median consensus forecast for 2013 inflation edged up from 5.53% to 5.56%. On growth, the consensus view edged up for 2012 from 3.22% to 3.23%.